AND A WARNING FROM HISTORY – AT 10:07 A.M. ET:  We have warned here at Urgent Agenda that our understandable preoccupation with the economy is diverting our eyes from foreign policy.  When, for example, did you read the last thoughtful story about Iran and its threat to its region and the world?  We really don't seem to care much any longer.  George McGovern's shortsighted, cynical cry, "Come home America!" is finally taking hold in some precincts...including some conservative precints.  Believe me, conservatives on particular occasions can be just as cynical and depressing as liberals. 

There's a new book out by historian Erik Larson, "In the Garden of Beasts: Love, Terror, and an American Family in Hitler's Berlin."  In the book, Larson traces the experience of the American ambassador to Berlin, William E. Dodd, and his daughter, Martha, as they arrived in the city in 1933, enthusiastic about the revolutionary atmosphere, only later to be repelled by Hitler's bestiality.  In a recent interview, Larson reflected on the feeling, often expressed, that President Franklin D. Roosevelt could have done more to battle Hitler in the early 30s, when Nazi Germany was still weak:

It's very easy, from the perspective of today, with the power of hindsight, to say, Roosevelt should have been more courageous. What would it have cost him, in 1933, to get out there in public and attack Hitler openly in a powerful speech? But, back in '33-'34, the nation was locked in the Depression, and the political opposition to Roosevelt was really pretty intense. The isolationists were really gaining steam - no one wanted another war. Hindsight says, yeah, he could have done something. And who knows, it could have had a powerful effect, because Hitler was very sensitive to public opinion in this period, as was the entire Reich hierarchy. And the best evidence of this is how persistently they sought to end that mock trial [of Hitler organized by the American Jewish Congress in 1934] in New York, and how furious that made them. But we can't really appreciate the depths of fear and personal distress that existed at that time. Roosevelt's priority was to get this country back on track fiscally and economically. Anything that would put that off was to be completely avoided.

COMMENT:  History doesn't repeat itself, but the psychology of history does.  It's what we normally call human nature.  Right now Americans are, once again, worried about their jobs, their children's education, what will become of spouses and other family members if they die.  Foreign threats, brought home to us so vividly on September 11, 2001, are fading in priority.  The attacks occurred 10 years ago.

But those foreign threats are not going to recede simply because many Americans want to ignore them, or put them off.  Dwight D. Eisenhower, in his farewell address to the nation, the famous "industrial-military complex" speech, did indeed warn of the dangers of that complex, but he did so in the context of asserting the need for it.  And one reason for that need, Eisenhower said, was that new forms of warfare did not give us the luxury of time to mobilize.  (See post on China just below.)  Americans forget that most of our mobilization for World War II occurred during the war, between late 1941 and 1943.  We will not have that luxury next time.

The psychology of history is now repeating itself.   We ask questions about Roosevelt.  But in that different time, Roosevelt was able to lead the nation successfully through a world war because he had the gift of time.  Will the same questions be asked of a contemporary American president?  Will the answers be the same, or tragically different?

July 22, 2011